Three lessons in deciding with missing information

1. Count your outs

An out is a card that would make your hand. A flush draw has 9 outs: 13 cards of a suit, minus the 4 you can already see. With two cards still to come, the rule of 4 gives a fast estimate: outs times 4, so 9 outs is about 36 percent. With one card to come, use the rule of 2: about 18 percent.

Off the table: before a hard choice, list what would have to go right. Counting your outs turns a feeling into a number you can discuss.

2. Price the call

If the pot is 100 and someone bets 50, you pay 50 to win 150. You need to win at least 50 out of 200 total, which is 25 percent of the time, for the call to break even. If your chance is higher than the price, calling is the better long-run decision.

Off the table: weigh the cost of acting against the size of the reward and your honest odds, not your hopes.

3. Judge decisions, not results

Even a 75 percent favorite loses one time in four. Strong players review whether the decision was right, not whether it won. In the ER, I teach the same habit: a good decision process protects you when luck turns.